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Events to watch this week

  • Federal funds target rate raised 25 basis points
  • Trump picks Tillerson for secretary of state
  • Global currencies continue fall versus US dollar
  • US small-business owners' optimism rises

The Week ahead:

  • Eurozone wage figures are released on Monday, 19 December
  • Japanese trade data and unemployment figures are released on Monday, 19 December
  • The Bank of Japan meets to decide monetary policy on Tuesday, 20 December
  • Eurozone consumer confidence figures are released on Wednesday, 21 December
  • The United States announces estimates for Q3 GDP on Thursday, 22 December

For the week,Global equities resumed their upward march after digesting the Federal Open Market Committee's decision this week to raise the key federal funds target rate by 25 basis points to a range of 0.50% to 0.75%. While the move was expected, markets needed a breather to factor in the FOMC's statement that it would target three rate hikes in 2017, which was more than expected. The S&P 500 Index increased 0.25% over the five days through Thursday and is up 10.83% on a year-to-date basis. The STOXX Europe 600 index is up about 6% over the past month, while the Nikkei 225 is up 8% over the same period and 17.45% over the past three months. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield continued to climb upwards after the FOMC announcement, reaching as high as 2.58% this week, its highest level since September 2014.

NIFTY- 8,139.45
CRUDE OIL-Rs 3,519barrel
GOLD-Rs 27,150/10 gram
Rs/$-Rs 67.77


Market declined last week, tracking weakness in other global stocks after the US Federal Reserve (US Fed) hiked interest rate on Wednesday, 14 December 2016. US Fed also hinted at a more aggressive pattern of rate increases next year. Higher interest rates in the US could result in dollar outflows from emerging markets towards the US. Selling the Indian stock market was, however, contained by back-to-back positive data in the domestic economy.

In the week ended on Friday, 16 December 2016, the Sensex fell 257.62 points or 0.96% to settle at 26,489.56. The Nifty fell 122.30 points or 1.48% to settle at 8,139.45. The BSE Mid-Cap index fell 2.38%. The BSE Small-Cap index fell 1.68%. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex. Trading for the week started on a negative note. Banking, telecom and index heavyweights ITC and Infosys led modest-to-strong losses for key benchmark indices on Monday, 12 December 2016. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, fell 231.94 points or 0.87% to settle at 26,515.24.

Macro Economic Front:

On the Economic Front,On the macro front, India's industrial production declined 1.9% in October 2016 over October 2015. Twelve out of 22 industry groups in the manufacturing sector showed negative growth in October 2016. The data was released by the government after market hours on Friday, 9 December 2016.

Data released by the government during market hours on Wednesday, 14 December 2016, showed that the annual rate of inflation, based on monthly wholesale price index (WPI), stood at 3.15% for the month of November 2016 as compared to 3.39% for the previous month and minus 2.04% during the corresponding month of the previous year.

Major Action &Announcement:

State-run Coal India dropped 6.18%. The company's consolidated net profit fell 77.37% to Rs 600.44 crore on 6.77% decline in total income to Rs 17625.09 crore in Q2 September 2016 over Q2 September 2015. The result was announced after market hours on Tuesday, 13 December 2016.

State Bank of India (SBI) fell 0.47% to Rs 264.75. SBI announced that the executive committee of the central board (ECCB) of the bank at a meeting held on 9 December 2016, approved divestment of 3.9 crore equity shares constituting 3.9% stake in SBI Life Insurance Company at a price of Rs 460 per share, subject to all regulatory approvals. The announcement was made after market hours on Friday, 9 December 2016.

Auto major Tata Motors rose 1.82% to Rs 472.50. Tata Motors Group global wholesales including Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) rose 1% to 91,832 units in November 2016 over November 2015. Global wholesales of all passenger vehicles rose 5% to 64,862 units in November 2016 over November 2015. Global wholesales of all Tata Motors' commercial vehicles and Tata Daewoo range fell 7% to 26,970 units in November 2016 over November 2015. The announcement was made after market hours on Friday, 9 December 2016.

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries (Sun Pharma) fell 3.85% to Rs 647.10. Sun Pharma and Israel-based Moebius Medical, a biotechnology company that is developing novel pain relief treatments for osteoarthritis, have entered into an exclusive worldwide licensing deal to further develop MM-II, a novel pharmaceutical candidate for the treatment of pain in osteoarthritis. The announcement was made after market hours Monday, 12 December 2016.

State-run NTPC fell 2.53% to Rs 159.95. NTPC announced that it has decided to raise Rs 3925 crore through private placement of secured non-convertible debentures at a coupon of 7.37% per annum with a door to door maturity of 15 years today, 14 December 2016. The proceeds will be utilized to finance capital expenditure/refinancing the debt requirement in on-going projects and other general corporate requirements. The announcement was made after market hours Tuesday, 13 December 2016.

Hindustan Unilever (HUL) fell 3.26% to Rs 817.30. HUL announced that Pond's Exports (PEL), a subsidiary of HUL, engaged in the business of manufacturing of leather products, has entered into an agreement with Hindustan Foods for sale of certain movable assets and inventory with respect to the leather business of PEL. Hindustan Foods has thus made an entry in the leather shoes exports space with a global clientele. The announcement was made during market hours on Friday, 16 December 2016.

Global Front:

In Overseas Markets,On the global front, the two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting concluded on Wednesday, 14 December 2016, with the US central bank hiking the interest rates by 25 basis points, an outcome that was largely factored in by the markets globally. This is the first interest rate hike for the US market since December last year. However, the investors were caught unaware with its forward-looking stance, which indicated that the central bank may cut rates at a much faster pace than expected in 2017. The US Fed signalled that there could be three interest rate hikes next year, up from the two flagged in the September policy meeting, media reports suggested, which impacted the markets last week.

Global Economic News:

Markets take rate increase in stride
This week's FOMC decision to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points comes a full year after its last hike. While the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond was about the same last year, the market environment was quite different then. This week's hike came amid rising euphoria in equity markets, as investors continued to reallocate from defensive and "bond-like" equity positions into riskier segments of the market. Equity market volatility is much lower this year, and there is greater dispersion among stock prices. Credit and liquidity conditions are also stronger now versus a year ago. High-yield sector spreads, for example, are compressed near their 24-month lows, signaling favorable conditions for corporate borrowers. Energy sector spreads, which peaked around 1,600 basis points this year, have recently fallen below 500 basis points, according to Strategas Research Partners.

Trump to nominate Exxon Mobil CEO Rex Tillerson as secretary of state
President-elect Donald Trump this week announced his intention to nominate Exxon Mobil chief executive Rex W. Tillerson as secretary of state. The choice of Tillerson's was criticized by senators on both sides of the aisle, who object his business dealings with Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin. Tillerson has spent his entire career at Exxon. Trump also announced that former Texas governor Rick Perry is his choice for energy secretary.

Global currencies fall versus US dollar
The US dollar continued to strengthen this week versus most major currencies. The Japanese yen has declined 11% since the US presidential election, while the Mexican peso has fallen 10%. China's yuan has also slid, while its capital outflows have ticked up. Japan surpassed China as the largest holder of US government bonds this week. China's government has been selling foreign currency reserves in an effort to protect the yuan.

Small-business owners optimistic but still not spending on capex
The US NFIB small-business optimism index rose by 3.5 points in November to 98.4, beating consensus estimates and rising above its 42-year average. Small-business owners reported, however, that they are less optimistic about capital expenditures. Just 24% of those surveyed plan to spend on capex in the next 3 to 6 months.





























Eyes will be set on the certain US economic data releases are:

Monday (19 Dec)
PMI Services Flash
Tuesday(20 Dec)
Week Bill Auction

Wednesday(21 Dec)
Existing Home Sales
Thursday(22 Dec)
Jobless Claims
Friday(23 Dec)
New Home Sales & Consumer Sentiment

Fundamental Pick of the week:

Buy UPL Ltd For Target Rs. 700.00


Strategy:- UPL added around 6% of open interest as fresh long positions along with some delivery based buying in previous sessions. Daily vwap is around 655 levels. On charts, it has created a fresh buying pivot on daily as well as on intraday charts above 100 EMA. We recommend doing a covered call strategy as per levels given below.



Indian Market Outlook:

Nifty Futures rose sharply by 140 points in first 35 mins of trading friday. Nifty opened gap down at 8129 and made a low of 8123 followed by a sharp buying to make a high of 8264. However, Nifty traded in a range of 78 points for rest of the day to finally close at 8177. The open interest data showed a heavy buying on the 8th Dec from a low of 8164 in Nifty Futures.  Nifty futures took support of the same level, 8166, in the second half of trading. Nifty futures is expected to find its major support at 8160 levels, with an immediate resistance at 8260. However, if 8160 is breached on the down side might result in Nifty retesting its November low of 7921. The Open Interest data yesterday along with the Cash market activity display a weakness before this week.


















Now coming week holding 8250 nifty can  move towards 8330/8370/8444. Bearish below 8250 for a move towards 8180/8100.

Nifty opened below 8250 and did the target of 8180 and low made 8121 near 8100. Bulls are backend till we do not close above 8154, Above 8154 target 8230/8272. Below 8130 move towards 8097/8051/8000.



Zone of 8154-8250 is like no trade zone for trend followers and paradise for scalper :). As Time Cycle is changing so expect this range to break in next 2 trading sessions. Above 8250 target 8330/8370/8444.Below 8150 target 8100/8050/7972. High made friday 8178 and close at 8139 so small range breakdown has happened , Monday we should see follow down move towards 8100/8050 till we are closing below 8150, Trading activity will reduce in next 2 weeks best strategy is to sit out analyze the trades of 2016 and see what all improvement can be done so that 2017 will be more better than 2016. Invest time in education and spend time with your families, Every day is not meant for trading.  Below 8150 target 8100/8050/7972, Above 8250 target 8330/8370/8444.    Bank Nifty continue to frustrate trend traders.