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Saudi oil strike | Where is crude headed and how worried should India be?

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 Substantial supply disruptions, post attacks on Saudi oil field
- Crude oil prices soar in trade
- Iran the main suspect behind the attacks, geopolitical tension escalating
- US orders release of strategic oil reserve to ease supply issues
- Huge inventory and spare capacity to make up for lost barrels
- In the short term, India could feel the heat

The disruptive weekend attacks on Saudi Arabian oil fields have left oil prices rocketing and geopolitical environment tensed. With around 60 percent of the kingdom’s output at stake and disruption in nearly 6 percent of the world oil production, there have been talks of further price surge. In the event of any further geopolitical action and escalation, near-term firming up in crude prices cannot be ruled out.

While the prices would remain elevated in the near term, we see prices to normalise in the absence of retaliatory action. Though the extent of damage and the restoration period is unknown at present, we do believe that there is capacity in the global markets that would be willing to grab the lost barrels. Large inventories, spare capacity and strategic reserves could also provide some cushion. This would enable normalisation of the crude supply sooner than anticipated right now.n the shorter term, however, elevated crude prices could stand as a negative for Indian downstream oil and gas companies that source a major portion of their supply from the international market, which could get costly now. It would also mean higher raw material costs and lower margins for allied sector companies. However, higher crude price could bring short-lived respite for upstream oil and gas producers.

Nearly 60 percent of Saudi production at stake

In the early hours of September 14, 10 unmanned aerial vehicles struck the world’s biggest crude-processing facility in Abqaiq and oil fields in Khurais, triggering huge fires. Saudi Aramco, the kingdom’s state-owned oil company, said the attack has impacted nearly 60 percent of the kingdom's output and the company had to suspend around 5.7 million barrels from its production. This accounts for almost 6 percent of the world oil production. The price of Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose by more than 10 percent in the early hours of trading.


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Thailand sees small impact on inflation after Saudi attacks

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 Thailand expects little impact from surging oil prices on its inflation rate and exports following attacks on Saudi oil facilities, a commerce ministry official said on Monday.

Saturday's drone assaults on Saudi oil facilities shut 5% of global crude output and caused the biggest surge in oil prices since 1991 after U.S. officials blamed Iran and President Donald Trump said Washington was "locked and loaded" to retaliate.

But the situation is not expected to drag on and should lift Thailand's inflation by just 0.01 percentage point, official Pimchanok Vonkorporn said in a statement.

The ministry is maintaining its 2019 headline inflation forecast of 0.7%-1.3%, she said, adding that the impact of oil prices on inflation is less than that of a strong baht , Asia's best performing currency this year.

The strengthening baht, which has gained 6.7% against the dollar so far this year, might keep inflation less than 1% this year, Pimchanok said.

In January-August, headline inflation was 0.87%.

Oil-related exports may improve only slightly and the ministry is sticking to the government's annual export growth target of 3% in the second half of 2019,

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Forex - Japanese Yen Rises Amid Heightened Geopolitical Tensions in Middle East

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The Japanese yen rose against the U.S. dollar on Monday in Asia amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after weekend attacks on Saudi oil plants disrupted global oil supplies.

The USD/JPY pair dropped 0.3% to 107.80 by 12:00 AM ET (04:00 GMT).

Drone strikes attacked an oil processing facility at Abqaiq, the world’s largest, and the nearby Khurais oil field on Saturday and knocked out 5% of global oil supply.

Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi group claimed responsibility for the damage, but the U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeohas pointed the finger directly at Iran as he said over the weekend that Iran has launched an “unprecedented attack on the world’s energy supply.”

The news intensified tensions in the Middle East, sending the yen higher as it drew safe-haven demand.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar traded slightly lower ahead of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday.

The U.S. dollar index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies slipped 0.1% to 97.732. Data on Friday showed that U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in August. That came after better-than-expected producer price inflation data on Wednesday and consumer price data on Thursday.

The Bank of Japan is also due to meet this week. Some believe the central bank may push interest rates further into negative territory and ramp up stimulating policies.

Sino-U.S. trade developments also remained in the spotlight as junior U.S. and Chinese officials will reportedly meet this week ahead of planned talks between senior trade negotiators in October.

Tensions between the two sides eased somewhat in recent weeks after Beijing exempted some agricultural products from additional tariffs on U.S. goods last week and U.S. President Donald Trump postponed a tariff increase on a range of Chinese goods by two weeks.

The USD/CNY pair slipped 0.1% to 7.0717. The AUD/USD pair edged down 0.1% to 0.6872, while the NZD/USD pair gained 0.2% to 0.6381.

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BPCL, HPCL, IOC appear bullish on the charts despite a surge in oil prices

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Nifty Energy Index has been consolidating in the range of 14,730 - 13,750 since August. The formation seems like triple-bottom and a breakout would mean can take the index to 15,000 markBrent oil prices rallied on Monday, surging past the $70 a barrel mark after the largest-ever disruption of crude production in Saudi Arabia amid drone attacks on its key facilities. The disruption, analysts say, may keep oil prices elevated in the near term.

 Brent oil sees biggest intra-day jump in 28 years. Can the up move sustain? "Global oil supplies may be adequately met through large inventories and strategic reserves; however, moderation in oil prices will depend on full restoration of Saudi’s production, which may at least take a few weeks.


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Wholesale price-based inflation unchanged at 1.08% in August

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Wholesale price-based inflation was unchanged at 1.08 percent in August even as prices of food items rose, government data showed on Monday.

The wholesale price index (WPI)-based inflation was at 1.08 percent in July this year and 4.62 percent in August 2018.

Inflation in food articles rose to 7.67 percent in August from 6.15 percent in July this year mainly on account of rise in prices of vegetables and protein-rich items.

Vegetable inflation too rose to 13.07 percent in the month under review as against 10.67 percent in July 2019.

Inflation in protein-rich items like egg, meat and fish rose to 6.60 percent last month from 3.16 percent in July.

However, fuel and power basket continued to witnessed deflation at 4 percent in August as against 3.64 percent in July.

Dollar falls as oil attacks send investors to safety

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The dollar fell while safe-havens and currencies of oil producing countries rallied on Monday, following an attack on Saudi Arabian refining facilities that disrupted global oil supply and heightened Middle East tensions.

Oil prices surged more than 15% following the strikes on two plants, including the world's biggest petroleum processing facility in Abqaiq, knocked out more than 5% of global oil supply.

Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi group claimed responsibility for the damage, but the U.S. has pointed the finger directly at Iran.

The Canadian dollar rose 0.5% in morning trade in Asia to 1.3224 per dollar. The Norwegian krone rose almost 0.6% to 8.9363 per dollar.

Both currencies often move together with the oil price because the countries are major oil exporters.

The attacks wiped out last week's ebullient risk appetite and prompted U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted the United States was "locked and loaded" for a response.

The safe-haven Japanese yen and Swiss franc each lifted at least 0.3% on the dollar. The yen hit 107.60 per dollar and the franc touched $0.9871. Gold jumped by 1%.

Against a basket of currencies (DXY) the dollar was 0.2% lower at 98.053.

"If that part of the reason for last week's fall in oil and improvement in geopolitical risk sentiment was the news of John Bolton's sacking ... and thoughts this was a precursor to some form of rapprochement between Trump and Iran, then it is no longer valid," said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at National Australia Bank in Sydney.

Beyond oil, currency markets are awaiting the outcome of central bank meetings in the U.S. and Japan this week and crucial economic data in Australia and New Zealand that could determine the rates outlook in the Antipodes.

Much of the risk appetite on display last week was driven by signs of a thaw in U.S.-China trade tensions, with both sides offering olive branches ahead of trade talks next month.

However with few solid signs of progress, sentiment remains fragile.

"Geopolitical risks and central bank rhetoric remain key drivers of risk this week," Australia and New Zealand Banking Group analysts said in a note.

In the United States, investors who had begun trimming expectations for a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut on Wednesday are now certain rates will fall and divided only over how much.

Markets also expect the Bank of Japan to push interest rates further into negative territory, with a third of economists polled by Reuters last week expecting stimulus to be ramped up.

Japanese markets are closed on Monday for a public holiday.

China's premier on Monday said maintaining national economic growth above 6% is difficult, with protectionism weighing.

Retail sales and industrial production figures due on Monday are likely to give further insight into the health of the world's second-largest economy. The Chinese yuan was flat in morning trade offshore .

The pound held last week's gains, as fears of Britain crashing out of the European Union without a divorce deal ebbed, while a news report on Friday also raised hopes that a deal could be secured by Oct. 31.

It steadied just under its highest since July 25 at $1.2491. The euro (EUR=D3) was steady at $1.1077.

The dollar fell while safe-havens and currencies of oil producing countries rallied on Monday, following an attack on Saudi Arabian refining facilities that disrupted global oil supply and heightened Middle East tensions.

Oil prices surged more than 15% following the strikes on two plants, including the world's biggest petroleum processing facility in Abqaiq, knocked out more than 5% of global oil supply.

Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi group claimed responsibility for the damage, but the U.S. has pointed the finger directly at Iran.

The Canadian dollar rose 0.5% in morning trade in Asia to 1.3224 per dollar. The Norwegian krone rose almost 0.6% to 8.9363 per dollar.

Both currencies often move together with the oil price because the countries are major oil exporters.

The attacks wiped out last week's ebullient risk appetite and prompted U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted the United States was "locked and loaded" for a response.

The safe-haven Japanese yen and Swiss franc each lifted at least 0.3% on the dollar. The yen hit 107.60 per dollar and the franc touched $0.9871. Gold jumped by 1%.

Against a basket of currencies (DXY) the dollar was 0.2% lower at 98.053.

"If that part of the reason for last week's fall in oil and improvement in geopolitical risk sentiment was the news of John Bolton's sacking ... and thoughts this was a precursor to some form of rapprochement between Trump and Iran, then it is no longer valid," said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at National Australia Bank in Sydney.

Beyond oil, currency markets are awaiting the outcome of central bank meetings in the U.S. and Japan this week and crucial economic data in Australia and New Zealand that could determine the rates outlook in the Antipodes.

Much of the risk appetite on display last week was driven by signs of a thaw in U.S.-China trade tensions, with both sides offering olive branches ahead of trade talks next month.

However with few solid signs of progress, sentiment remains fragile.

"Geopolitical risks and central bank rhetoric remain key drivers of risk this week," Australia and New Zealand Banking Group analysts said in a note.

In the United States, investors who had begun trimming expectations for a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut on Wednesday are now certain rates will fall and divided only over how much.

Markets also expect the Bank of Japan to push interest rates further into negative territory, with a third of economists polled by Reuters last week expecting stimulus to be ramped up.

Japanese markets are closed on Monday for a public holiday.

China's premier on Monday said maintaining national economic growth above 6% is difficult, with protectionism weighing.

Retail sales and industrial production figures due on Monday are likely to give further insight into the health of the world's second-largest economy. The Chinese yuan was flat in morning trade offshore .

The pound held last week's gains, as fears of Britain crashing out of the European Union without a divorce deal ebbed, while a news report on Friday also raised hopes that a deal could be secured by Oct. 31.

It steadied just under its highest since July 25 at $1.2491. The euro (EUR=D3) was steady at $1.1077.

The dollar fell while safe-havens and currencies of oil producing countries rallied on Monday, following an attack on Saudi Arabian refining facilities that disrupted global oil supply and heightened Middle East tensions.

Oil prices surged more than 15% following the strikes on two plants, including the world's biggest petroleum processing facility in Abqaiq, knocked out more than 5% of global oil supply.

Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi group claimed responsibility for the damage, but the U.S. has pointed the finger directly at Iran.

The Canadian dollar rose 0.5% in morning trade in Asia to 1.3224 per dollar. The Norwegian krone rose almost 0.6% to 8.9363 per dollar.

Both currencies often move together with the oil price because the countries are major oil exporters.

The attacks wiped out last week's ebullient risk appetite and prompted U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted the United States was "locked and loaded" for a response.

The safe-haven Japanese yen and Swiss franc each lifted at least 0.3% on the dollar. The yen hit 107.60 per dollar and the franc touched $0.9871. Gold jumped by 1%.

Against a basket of currencies (DXY) the dollar was 0.2% lower at 98.053.

"If that part of the reason for last week's fall in oil and improvement in geopolitical risk sentiment was the news of John Bolton's sacking ... and thoughts this was a precursor to some form of rapprochement between Trump and Iran, then it is no longer valid," said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at National Australia Bank in Sydney.

Beyond oil, currency markets are awaiting the outcome of central bank meetings in the U.S. and Japan this week and crucial economic data in Australia and New Zealand that could determine the rates outlook in the Antipodes.

Much of the risk appetite on display last week was driven by signs of a thaw in U.S.-China trade tensions, with both sides offering olive branches ahead of trade talks next month.

However with few solid signs of progress, sentiment remains fragile.

"Geopolitical risks and central bank rhetoric remain key drivers of risk this week," Australia and New Zealand Banking Group analysts said in a note.

In the United States, investors who had begun trimming expectations for a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut on Wednesday are now certain rates will fall and divided only over how much.

Markets also expect the Bank of Japan to push interest rates further into negative territory, with a third of economists polled by Reuters last week expecting stimulus to be ramped up.

Japanese markets are closed on Monday for a public holiday.

China's premier on Monday said maintaining national economic growth above 6% is difficult, with protectionism weighing.

Retail sales and industrial production figures due on Monday are likely to give further insight into the health of the world's second-largest economy. The Chinese yuan was flat in morning trade offshore .

The pound held last week's gains, as fears of Britain crashing out of the European Union without a divorce deal ebbed, while a news report on Friday also raised hopes that a deal could be secured by Oct. 31.

It steadied just under its highest since July 25 at $1.2491. The euro (EUR=D3) was steady at $1.1077.


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