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Canadian Dollar Price: USDCAD Trend Eyes Bank of Canada Rate Decision

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  • Bank of Canada is expected to keep rates unchanged at 1.75%.
  • USDCAD chart shows bears starting to take control.

Q3 2019 Forecasts and Top Trading Opportunities

THE CANADIAN DOLLAR SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK RESTS ON THE BANK OF CANADA (BOC)

Bank of Canada (BoC) governor Stephen Poloz is expected to announce that the overnight interest rate will remain unchanged at 1.75% when the central bank meets today. At the last meeting in July, the central bank noted that while the Canadian economy is returning to potential growth, ‘the outlook is clouded by persistent trade tensions’. Financial markets expect no rate change today but are pricing in a roughly 66% chance of a 0.25% interest rate cut at the October 30 meeting which will include the central bank’s latest monetary policy report.

Live Data Webinar: Bank of Canada Rate Decision

Since the last BoC announcement, trade tensions – especially between the US and China – have increased with both sides announcing additional trade tariffs. This backdrop has weighed on the price of oil, which in turn has put downward pressure on the Canadian dollar. The Canadian energy sector accounts for around 11% of nominal GDP and produced revenues of $14.1 billion in 2017.

The daily USDCAD chart shows that the rally that started in mid-July is running out of momentum and this move may continue if the central bank’s press announcement today is more dovish than expected. This week’s price action shows two bearish ‘shooting star’ candles with a long upper shadow and very little lower shadow. Today’s bearish candlestick is more likely due to US dollar weakness, but the chart may be pointing to a retrace back to the 1.3225 – 1.3245 area. The 200-day moving average at 1.3293 stands in the way of this move lower. The CCI indicator shows the pair moving out of overbought territory. To the upside, a break and close above 1.3350 should be watched, before Tuesday’s multi-week high at 1.3383 comes into view.

USDCAD DAILY PRICE CHART (JANUARY – SEPTEMBER 4, 2019)

Canadian Dollar Price: USDCAD Trend Eyes Bank of Canada Rate Decision

IG Client Sentiment data show that 34.0% of retail traders are net-long of USDCAD, a bullish contrarian indicator. However, recent daily and weekly positional changes suggest that USDCAD may soon move lower.

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FOREX-Dollar extends decline after disappointing factory data

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* Euro lifted away from 28-month lows

* Dollar weakness helps emerging market currencies

* Sterling gains on bid to stop no-deal Brexit

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019

The dollar extended its fall on Wednesday following disappointing manufacturing data, helping the euro to recover from more than two-year lows.

Sterling also rallied, recovering some of Tuesday's losses after the latest parliamentary attempt to stop a no-deal Brexit.

The dollar's pullback was prompted by manufacturing activity in the world's biggest economy contracting for the first time in three years last month, data from the Institute for Supply Management published on Tuesday showed. knocked the wind out of a previously rising greenback and spurred a further bond rally as investors increased bets on more Federal Reserve interest rate cuts before the end of 2019.

The dollar was last down 0.2% against a basket of major currencies, its index at 98.803 .DXY , easing from a more than two-year high hit on Tuesday.

"Yesterday's manufacturing survey was very gloomy and confirms that the U.S. is suffering from the global trade and manufacturing downturn, along with everyone else," said Kit Juckes, currency strategist at Societe Generale The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0992 EUR=EBS , pulling further away from $1.0926 - a 28-month low - touched on Tuesday before the weak U.S. data was published.

The European single currency was little moved by the final release of the euro zone Purchasing Managers Index composite survey, which came in slightly better than expected.

The safe-haven yen and Swiss franc fell as some calm returned to markets, helped by reports that Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam would on Wednesday announce the formal withdrawal of an extradition bill that triggered months of unrest. showing growth in China's service sector also boosted investor sentiment.

The yen was down 0.2% at 106.19 yen per dollar JPY=EBS . The Swiss franc dropped 0.3% versus the euro to 1.0858 francs EURCHF=EBS .

The dollar's weakness helped China's offshore yuan CNH=EBS pull away further from record lows plumbed earlier this week. The yuan was last up 0.3% at 7.1553 yuan per dollar.

Emerging market currencies were mostly up on the dollar weakness, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars also seized on the greenback's weakness to rise AUD=D3 NZD=D3 .

"The expectation that the Fed will come to the rescue has increased," said Rodrigo Catril, senior FX strategist at National Australia Bank in Sydney.

"But it's not a capitulation on the dollar. It's just merely stopped the recent rise of the dollar."

The British pound, which on Tuesday fell below $1.20 and to its weakest in three-years, rose 0.5% to the day's high of $1.2157 GBP=D3 .

Against the euro it rallied 0.4% to 90.39 pence EURGBP=D3 .

Lawmakers who defeated Prime Minister Boris Johnson's government late on Tuesday are expected to introduce a bill in parliament seeking to stop Britain from leaving the European Union on Oct. 31 without transitional arrangements.

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EUR/USD has found support and may extend its recovery to 1.1073 – Confluence Detector

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EUR/USD has bounced off the new two-year lows after US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Manufacturing Index dropped below 50 and reflected a contraction in the critical sector. Can the world's most popular currency pair move extend its recovery?

The Technical Confluences Indicator is showing that EUR/USD enjoys significant support at 1.0965, where we see a dense cluster including the Fibonacci 38.2% one-day, the Simple Moving Average 10-4h, the previous monthly low, the previous weekly low, the Bollinger Band 1h-Middle, the BB 1d-Lower, the Fibonacci 23.6% one-day, and the BB 15min-Lower. Looking up, some resistance awaits at 1.1016, where the Fibonacci 23.6% one-week meets the SMA 5-1d. 

Several junctures of resistance await on the way up, with the most significant one awaiting at 1.1073, which is the where we see the confluence of the Fibonacci 61.8% one-week, the SMA 100-4h, and the Fibonacci 38.2% one-month.

Below 1.0965, the next support line is 1.0890, where the Pivot Point one-month Support 1 and the PP 1d-S3 converge.

Here is how it looks on the tool:

Here is how it looks on the tool:

EUR USD September 4 2019 technical confluence

Confluence Detector

The Confluence Detector finds exciting opportunities using Technical Confluences. The TC is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. Knowing where these congestion points are located is very useful for the trader, and can be used as a basis for different strategies.

This tool assigns a certain amount of “weight” to each indicator, and this “weight” can influence adjacents price levels. These weightings mean that one price level without any indicator or moving average but under the influence of two “strongly weighted” levels accumulate more resistance than their neighbors. In these cases, the tool signals resistance in apparently empty areas.

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