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Forex - Dollar Falls after Fed Rate Cut, APEC Summit Cancellation

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The dollar fell against a currency basket on Thursday after the third Federal Reserve rate cut this year, as investors took indications of a potential pause in the easing cycle with a pinch of salt.

In lowering its key overnight lending rate by a quarter of a percentage point to a target range of between 1.50% and 1.75% the U.S. central bank dropped a previous reference in its policy statement that it "will act as appropriate" to sustain the economic expansion - language that was considered a sign for future cuts.

The lack of a clear indication from the Fed that it is done with easing for now was seen as less hawkish than expected, sending the dollar lower.

"The new, slightly shorter, statement tries to keep their options open and puts them back into a data-dependent mode, but circumstances could mean that they have less optionality than they think," said Tim Foster, portfolio manager at Fidelity International in London.

The U.S. dollar index was down 0.3% at 97.11 by 04:33 AM ET (08:33 GMT), its lowest level in a week.

The euro was up 0.14% to 1.1164, while the greenback last traded at 108.61 yen, 0.2% lower on the day.

The dollar was pressured lower against the safe-haven yen by the news that Chile has withdrawn as host of an APEC summit in November where the U.S. and China had been expected to take major steps towards resolving their protracted trade war.

Hopes that the world's largest economies would soon agree on a partial deal has boosted risk appetite this week.

“The fact that Chile has cancelled the mid-November APEC Summit should not be a deal breaker for the U.S. and China to reach a truce," said Tai Hui, Asia chief market strategist at JPMogan Asset Management in Hong Kong.

"If the two sides were genuinely willing to reach an interim deal before mid-December, when the next scheduled hike in tariff on Chinese exports is due to take place, they will find a venue to get the deal done."

The Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy steady on Thursday but introduced new forward guidance to more clearly signal the future chance of a rate cut, underlining its concern over global economic risks.

The British pound pushed higher after Prime Minister Boris Johnson won parliamentary approval on Wednesday to hold a general election



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Sensex hits record high! These 20 stocks surged 30-99% in 5 months

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Investor sentiment seems to have turned positive again as the Sensex climbed back to mount 40,000 after nearly a five-month break and hit a new record high of 40,345.

Slowdown worries, weak earnings in June quarter, FII selling, NPA concerns among other factors ruined investor confidence and dragged the index to 36,100 levels, on an intraday basis, from the peak of 40,308 on June 3, 2019.

The massive correction got the acknowledgement of the government, which introduced a slew of measure to revive the economy, as well as, earning of the India Inc. In the two months after touching the low of 36,100 levels on August 23, the index gained more than 3,900 points.

The market generally factors in all the positive and negative news sooner rather than later. Hence, one could say that the current rally is on optimism that the economy could recover from the second half of FY20 on the back of a good festive season and in line to better-than-expected earnings in September quarter.

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But looking at the stock price data, the "hope rally" was driven only by few stocks and it was not a broad-based run. In fact, the BSE Midcap index fell 3.3 percent and Smallcap index dropped 10 percent in nearly five months.

However, a closer look at the data reveals that this "hope rally" was driven by only a few stocks and was not broad-based. In fact, the BSE Midcap index fell 3.3 percent and Smallcap index dropped 10 percent in nearly five months.

In the five months it took to reclaim Mount 40k, little more than 30 percent stocks in the BSE500 index were in a positive terrain.

Among those 30 percent, around half of stocks gave double-digit returns, of which, the top 20 stocks rallied between 30 percent and 99 percent.

Adani Green Energy, Shipping Corporation of India, HDFC AMC, Reliance Nippon, Berger Paints, Dr Lal PathLabs, Avenue Supermarts, ICICI Securities, SBI Life, HDFC Life, MCX, GIC Re, Colgate etc were among those 20 stocks.

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However, on the other side, more than 200 stocks fell double-digit with top 35 stocks declining over 50 percent which included most of the companies that faced high debt, corporate governance, asset quality concerns etc.

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Forex - U.S. Dollar Slips After Fed Policy Decision

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The U.S. dollar slipped on Thursday in Asia after the Federal Reserve slashed its benchmark funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 1.5% to 1.75% as expected, but altered language in its post-meeting statements and indicated that it may pause rate cuts from here.

The Fed removed a key clause that said the Fed was committed to “act as appropriate to sustain the expansion.”

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a news conference that central bank officials “see the current stance of monetary policy as likely to remain appropriate.”

“We see the current stance of policy as likely to remain appropriate as long as incoming information about the economy remains broadly consistent with our outlook.”

The U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies was down 0.3% to 97.127 by 1:10 AM ET (05:10 GMT).

Trade tensions between China and the U.S. remained uncertain after Chile said it is canceling the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit next month due to ongoing protests. U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping were expected to meet on the sidelines and possibly sign phase one of a trade deal.

The GBP/USD pair gained 0.2% to 1.2927 after the U.K. Parliament voted this week to hold an early general election on Dec. 12.

The USD/JPY pair slipped 0.2% to 108.66. As expected, the Bank of Japan maintained its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and a pledge to guide 10-year government bond yields around 0%.

The AUD/USD pair and the NZD/USD pair jumped 0.4% and 0.6%.


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