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Currencies mark time before trade deal; UK data eyed

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Major currencies were closeted within tight ranges on Wednesday as investors awaited the signing of a U.S.-China trade deal, with the greenback holding above a one-week low against its rivals.

Though the formal agreement, due in early U.S. hours, is aimed at drawing a line under 18 months of tit-for-tat tariff hikes that have hurt global growth, it will not end the trade dispute between the world's two largest economies.

"I don't think the market is fully convinced about a closure on the trade conflict front as the issue has caused a lot of damage to the world economy," said Neil Mellor, a senior FX strategist at BNY Mellon in London.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said existing tariffs on Chinese goods would stay, pending further talks.

Against a basket of its rivals (DXY), the dollar was steady at 97.4, just shy of a one-week low of 97.29. The Chinese currency in the offshore market was broadly steady.

The Australian dollar , a relatively volatile barometer of trade tensions, was a shade weaker at $0.6893.

U.S. President Donald Trump is slated to sign the Phase 1 trade agreement with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He at the White House at 1630 GMT.

Washington has already agreed to suspend tariffs on $160 billion of some Chinese-made electronics, and to halve existing tariffs on $120 billion of other goods to 7.5%.

But it will leave in place 25% tariffs on a vast, $250 billion array of Chinese industrial goods and components used by U.S. manufacturers.

A source told Reuters that China has pledged to buy almost $80 billion of additional manufactured goods from the United States over the next two years under the deal, although some U.S. trade experts called that unrealistic.

Elsewhere, the British pound was broadly steady at $1.3014 after sustaining some losses in recent sessions thanks to a chorus of dovish comments from central bank policymakers.

The only major data in the European session is U.K. price data due at 0930 GMT where inflation is expected to grow 1.5% in December from a year-ago period.

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Forex - Markets Calm; Sterling Awaits Inflation Data

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 A tone of caution prevails in the foreign exchange markets Wednesday, ahead of the signing of the much-awaited trade deal between U.S. and China.

At 03:25 ET (0825 GMT), the safe-haven yen was slightly firmer against the U.S. dollar, with USD/JPY trading at 109.91, down 0.1%, while the euro was marginally lower against the dollar, with EUR/USD at $1.1120, down less than 0.1%. A preliminary reading of 2019 German GDP due at 4 AM ET (0900 GMT) may have some impact on that pair.

The formal agreement is aimed at drawing a line under 18 months of tit-for-tat tariff hikes that have hurt global growth, but it will not end the trade dispute between the world's two largest economies. This was made clear overnight when U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said existing tariffs on Chinese goods would stay, pending further talks.

Elsewhere,sterling has climbed back above the $1.30 level, helped by comments from Prime Minister Boris Johnson who said late Tuesday that he considers “very likely” the U.K. will get a “comprehensive trade deal with the EU by year-end.”

It’s debatable how long this pair can remain above this level given the recent comments from a number of members of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, suggesting the bank may be edging towards a rate cut.

In a speech earlier, Bank of England policymaker Michael Saunders repeated his support for a rate cut to support an economy weakened by Brexit and other uncertainties.

"It probably will be appropriate to maintain an expansionary monetary policy stance and possibly to cut rates further, in order to reduce risks of a sustained undershoot of the 2% inflation target," Reuters quoted Saunders as saying.

"With limited monetary policy space, risk management considerations favor a relatively prompt and aggressive response to downside risks at present."

“News that the BoE is turning a little more dovish, plus no signs of a serious U.S. slow-down, suggests GBP/USD may be spending more time at the lower end of its 1.29-1.35 trading range, “ according to an ING research note.

The release of inflation data later Wednesday, at 04:30 ET (0930 GMT), could have some impact. The headline CPI inflation is expected to arrive at +0.2% on the month in December while the annualized figure is seen steady at +1.5%.

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Petrol, diesel prices cut by around 15 paise on Jan 16

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Petrol and diesel prices across all major cities in India were cut by 15 paise and 14 paise respectively on January 16. This came after no change in fuel prices was seen on January 15.

In Delhi, petrol costs Rs 75.55 a litre while diesel is being sold at Rs 68.92 a litre. Meanwhile in Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkata, petrol is pegged at Rs 81.14, Rs 78.49 and Rs 78.23 a litre today. Diesel in these three cities after the price cut today is at Rs 72.27, Rs 72.83 and Rs 71.29 a litre.

On January 13, the fuel prices across major Indian cities saw a drop for the second day in a row, with petrol and diesel prices being slashed by 10 paise and 5 paise respectively.

The relief comes after crude oil prices saw a drop following a further easing of the US-Iran conflict threat.

Earlier this month, the price of crude oil spiked over rising tension in the Middle East and the resultant geopolitical uncertainties.

However, Iran signalled on January 12 that it favoured de-escalation, following nearly 10 days of tension between the countries, which came after an Iranian military general was killed in an airstrike by the US.

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