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Forex - Yuan Recovers; Dollar Heads Higher as Trade Talks Hit Sterling

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The Chinese yuan benefited from the stronger tone in the country’s equity markets Tuesday, although concerns about the widening coronavirus outbreak have kept the gains capped.

At 03:05 ET (0805 GMT), USD/CNY traded at 6.9935, down 0.4%, pushing back below the 7.0 level after breaking through that barrier Monday for the first time this year.

The country's central bank has tried to mitigate the economic damage caused by the coronavirus by trimming interest rates and injecting 1.2 trillion yuan of liquidity into the markets.

Most expect more measures ahead.

"Chinese authorities have been providing a lot of support for the financial markets. There's a level of assurance that the rout would not be allowed to go on much further than necessary," said Christy Tan, head of markets strategy for Asia at National Australia Bank in Singapore.

Still, the number of coronavirus deaths in China continued to climb, reaching 425 as of the end of Monday, from over 20,000 cases, a mortality rate of barely 2%.

Elsewhere, the US Dollar Index Futures, which tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies, pushed up 0.2% to 97.767, helped by stronger than expected manufacturing sentiment data late Monday and weakness in sterling.

“The ISM manufacturing index has surged back into positive growth territory. The Phase One trade deal between the US and China has lifted much of the gloom hanging over the sector with businesses responding positively,” said ING, in a research note.

Sterling was weak Tuesday as Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Chief EU Negotiator Michel Barnier laid out opposing visions for the relationship between the two groups post-Brexit.

Fears still exist that the U.K. could end the transition period at the end of this year without a trade deal.

At 03:05 ET (0805 GMT), GBP/USD traded at 1.2957, down 0.3%, near a seven-week low.

Overnight, the Australian dollar rose after the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to hold the official cash rate steady at 0.75%. The decision was largely in line with expectation, but analysts do look for another rate cut in the near future.

At 03:05 ET (0805 GMT), the AUD/USD pair traded 0.4% higher to 0.6717.

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Dollar gains on upbeat manufacturing data, virus threats cap yuan

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The dollar held firm on Tuesday after a key U.S. manufacturing survey showed a surprise recovery, while concerns about a widening coronavirus outbreak in China kept the yuan and the Australian dollar subdued.

The dollar index (=USD) rose 0.44% on Monday, the biggest gain so far this year, and last stood at 97.802. It was boosted by a report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that U.S. factory activity unexpectedly rebounded in January after contracting for five straight months amid a surge in new orders.

Against the yen, the dollar traded at 108.62 yen , after a gain of 0.3% on Monday, the biggest gain in a downtrend that started in mid-January.

The euro stood at $1.1062 (EUR=), having slipped 0.3% on Monday.

In Asia, coronavirus remained in focus as the number of cases and deaths showed little sign of slowdown.

"The question is how long it will take to contain the epidemic. While some people are selling risk assets, there are also lots of people who are looking for a chance for bargain-hunting," said Ayako Sera, market economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank.

"If we start to see a decline in the number of new cases, then we could see an end. But at the moment, it is hard to say when that will happen."

The offshore yuan traded at 7.0127 yuan per dollar , holding slightly above its one-month low of 7.0230 per dollar hit in European trade on Monday.

The Australian dollar fetched $0.6690 , within sight of its 10 1/2-year low of $0.6670 touched last October, ahead of an interest rate decision Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) due later in the day.

Although most investors expect the RBA to keep rates on hold at this month's meeting, a cut has not been completely ruled out, with markets pricing in a 100% chance of such a move by May.

Elsewhere, sterling fetched $1.2999 , having lost 1.54% on Monday on renewed worries about Britain's relations with the European Union. Prime Minister Boris Johnson set out tough terms for Brexit talks with the European Union, rekindling fears Britain would reach the end of an 11-month transition period without agreeing a trade deal.

Traders are also casting an eye on the U.S. state of Iowa, where Democrats are kicking off a process to choose a challenger to President Donald Trump.

Market players say a victory by a progressive candidate such Senator Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren could hurt shares and lift safe-haven currencies as some of their policies are thought to be not in best interests of Wall Street.


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