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GBP/USD: EU punishes the pound

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The cable has dropped below 1.29, hitting the lowest levels since November amid Brexit concerns and USD strength. Speculation about EU-UK relations and coronavirus headlines are set to move the pound, according to FXStreet’s Yohay Elam.

Key quotes

“The bloc could reportedly try to move the clearing of euro contracts from London to within the EU and may also move to withdraw concessionOfficial negotiations will kick off on March 3, but press briefings and leaks suggest talks will be tough.”

“The US dollar remains underpinned by upbeat figures such as the Non-Farm Payrolls report which showed an increase of 225,000 jobs in January.”

“Coronavirus headlines are also benefitting the greenback, which benefits from safe-haven flows. The respiratory disease has taken the lives of over 900 people with over 40,000 infected, the vast majority in China.” 

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Moderation in India's growth coincides with global situation: MoS Finance Anurag Thakur

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The moderation in India's growth coincides with a deceleration in growth of global output and the IMF has projected the country's GDP growth to pick up to 5.8 per cent in 2020, Union Minister Anurag Thakur said in Lok Sabha.

Thakur said India's growth trajectory over the period 2014-15 to 2018-19 is characterised by macroeconomic stability with real GDP growth averaging 7.4 per cent.

"The moderation in India's growth coincides with a deceleration in growth of global output, as estimated by the IMF, in recent years," he said replying a question of Congress MP Abdul Khaleque and TMC's Saugata Roy during Question Hour.

Thakur, union minister of state for finance, said the IMF has projected India's GDP growth to pick up to 5.8 per cent in 2020.

The economic survey 2019-20 has also projected a pick-up in India's growth in the range of 6.0 per cent to 6.5 per cent in 2020-21.

The RBI's sixth bi-monthly monetary policy statement, 2019-20 has also projected GDP growth of 6.0 per cent for 2020-21.

Thakur said as per the National Statistical Office's first advance estimates of national income, 2019-20, India's real GDP is estimated to grow at 5.0 per cent in 2019-20.

He said the World Economic Outlook Update (January 2020) published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised India's GDP growth rate to 4.8 per cent in 2019.

This revision in growth may not cause any stress in the Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) sector as NBFCs are well capitalised, he said.

The minister said the government has implemented several major structural reforms in recent years to bolster investment and growth.

These include Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) to strengthen the financial system, Goods and Services Tax (GST) to simplify the indirect taxation regime, Make-in-India programme to boost domestic manufacturing capacity, liberalisation of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Jan Dhan-Aadhaar-Mobile (JAM) Trinity towards greater transparency, efficiency and financial inclusion, he said.

Thakur also said recently, the corporate tax rate has been cut to 15 per cent for new domestic manufacturing companies, which is amongst the lowest in the world.

In December 2019, he said, the government has announced the Rs 103 lakh crore National Infrastructure Pipeline which would significantly boost infrastructure and spur growth impulses in the economy.

GBP/USD Exchange Rate to Tumble if UK GDP Stalled at the End of 2020?

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GBP/USD Exchange Rate Steady ahead of UK GDP Figures

The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate is holding its ground at the start of this week’s session as markets brace for publication of the UK’s latest GDP estimate.

At the time of writing the GBP/USD exchange rate is trading at around $1.2928, virtually unchanged from today’s opening rate.

Pound (GBP) to Slump as UK Growth Stagnates?

The Pound (GBP) looks poised to slump on Tuesday as the UK publishes its latest GDP figures.

Barring a significant uptick in economic activity in December, tomorrow’s estimate of GDP is expected to show that the UK economy stalled in the last quarter of 2019.

The likely stagnation of growth comes amid heightened political uncertainty in the UK in the run up to December’s general election.

Should growth have stalled in line with expectations in the fourth quarter, it’s also likely to keep the pressure on the Bank of England (BoE) to ease it monetary policy in the near-term, potentially opening the door to an interest rate cut in March.

Coronavirus Fears to Underpin Demand for the US Dollar (USD)?

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) looks likely to remain well supported this week as markets continue to panic over the coronavirus outbreak in China.

While reports of new cases are beginning to slow, the global death toll has now risen to over 900 topping that of the Sars outbreak in 2003, which was estimated to have cost the global economy over $30bn.

Economists predict that the impact of the coronavirus outbreak on global growth will be significantly more serve due to China’s greater role in global trade, but it remains unclear just how large an impact this will be.

‘New cases in China are stabilising but it’s now more deadly than SARS was. What’s still unknown is the real economic damage this has wrought. Markets will continue to find support from ample liquidity delivered by willing central banks and the buy-the-dip mentality lives on.

‘An explosion of cases in London or New York could spook traders still…the UK government calls the coronavirus a ‘serious and imminent threat’ to public health.’

As a result is highly likely the US Dollar will remain in demand this week as investors continue to flock to safe-haven assets.

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Asian Stocks Slip, Yuan Fluctuates on Virus News: Markets Wrap

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Stocks slipped across the Asia Pacific on Monday as investors continued trying to gauge when economic activity might rebound after the hit from the coronavirus.

Benchmarks in Hong Kong, Shanghai, Tokyo and Seoul were lower, though moves eased following a report that Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL).’s main manufacturer got a green light to resume some production. That reversed declines in U.S. equity futures, which traded slightly higher as of noon in Tokyo. The Australian dollar climbed and the yuan rose past 7 per dollar offshore. Treasuries were flat, while oil traded around $50 a barrel in New York.

With cases outside of China continuing to increase, investors will be monitoring whether the rate of change kicks up a gear. Meantime, monetary authorities across emerging markets have stepped in. The People’s Bank of China moved to keep liquidity ample Monday through reverse-repurchase agreements.

“This coronavirus seems to be going on for longer, is infecting more people and the hit to growth will be longer,” Diana Mousina, an economist at AMP Capital Investors Ltd., told Bloomberg TV in Sydney. “You won’t be able to recoup all of the negative impacts in the first quarter.”

Here are some key events coming up:

  • Earnings season continues with reports including: Alibaba (NYSE:BABA), Softbank, Nissan, Airbus, Nestle and AIG (NYSE:AIG).
  • Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivers his semiannual testimony in Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday.
  • Thursday brings a gauge of underlying U.S. inflation, the core consumer price index. It’s expected to increase to 0.2% in January, a faster pace than in December.
  • China and the U.S. on Friday lower tariffs on billions of dollars of respective imports, as part of the trade deal signed last month.

And these are the main moves in markets:


  • Japan’s Topix index dropped 0.6%. as of 12:35 p.m. in Tokyo.
  • The Shanghai Composite Index slid 0.4%
  • Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined 0.7%.
  • Futures on the S&P 500 were up 0.1%. The underlying gauge fell 0.5% on Friday.
  • South Korea’s Kospi index retreated 0.6%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures slid 0.1%.


  • The yen was little changed at 109.80 per dollar.
  • The offshore yuan ticked up 0.2% to 6.9952 per dollar.
  • The euro bought $1.0951, little changed.
  • The Australian dollar gained 0.4% to 66.97 U.S. cents.


  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries was steady at 1.59%.
  • Australia’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 1.02%.


  • West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell 0.2% to $50.22 a barrel.
  • Gold was little changed at $1,570.41 an ounce.

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