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Gold Price and Silver Outlook Remains Constructive So Far

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  • Gold pullback may deepen, but constructive so far
  • Silver has support not too far away to keep it bid

For an intermediate-term fundamental and technical viewpoint, see the Q3 Gold Forecast.


Last week, gold ran into major long-term resistance by way of lows created following the 2011 spike-high, and the volatile price action last Tuesday cemented the bottom of the 1522/75 zone as a legitimate ceiling.

The decline so far has been subtle with little to no change since a week ago, a bullish development thus far. Gradual, stubborn declines following sharp run-ups into resistance are considered a good thing; it shows buying interest even at a hint of weakness.This doesn’t mean something won’t further spur gold along to the downside, but as long as it doesn’t turn outright aggressive, then weakness will be treated only as a correction within an ongoing bull-move that began since the wedge-breakout in June.

A good spot for would-be longs is the trend-line running up from late May in the vicinity of 1450/60. A decline and hold there would offer enough room back up to the resistance zone for a good risk/reward swing-trade with potential to turn it into something much larger if a breakout above 1575 were to develop.

For now, gold is still close to a major zone of resistance and at risk of correcting further or at least moving sideways for a bit longer. This takes some shine off of fresh longs, but doesn’t invoke much confidence in shorts given the generally strong nature of gold.

Check out the IG Client Sentiment page to see how changes in trader positioning can help signal the next price move in gold and other major markets and currencies.

Silver price action is similar to gold, constructive so far despite last Tuesday’s volatile session. There is good support by way of a couple of directions. There is the 2003 trend-line that once acted as resistance, then there is the trend-line from July rising up near current levels. Sideways price action has silver looking like it wants to maintain and build on the rally that began at the end of May.RESOURCES FOR FOREX & CFD TRADERS

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

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Forex - Euro Tests Lows Ahead of Expected No-Confidence Vote in Italy

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The dollar was little changed in early trading in Europe Wednesday but starting to build momentum against the euro at the start of a day where politics is likely to dominate economics.

The euro was at $1.1079 by 3:30 AM ET (0730 GMT) and looking to test last week’s low of $1.1066 ahead of a big day in the Italian parliament. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte is due to speak in the afternoon and is expected to resign ahead of a no-confidence vote that has been called by the right-wing Lega party, the junior member of the governing coalition. While both the Lega and its partner the 5 Stars Movement appear to have given up on continuing their government, it is far from clear what might follow if the no confidence vote succeeds.

Snap elections are one possibility, but it is also possible that President Sergio Mattarella will ask the parties in parliamment to form a new government. Theoretically, the 5 Stars Movement and the traditional center-left Democratic Party are capable of forming a majority that could pass a budget for the coming year and perhaps take the sting out of the country’s budget dispute with the European Union. However, that would require the two parties to set aside a good deal of past animosity toward each other.

Economics are also against the euro at present, after the Deutsche Bundesbank warned in its monthly report on Monday that it expects a second straight quarter of contraction in the summer, meaning that the euro zone’s traditional engine room would be in recession for the first time in a decade.

The euro was, however, strengthening against the pound after Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s latest initiative on Brexit underlined the distance between the U.K. and EU positions on how to manage the Irish border in future. In an open letter to EU Council President Donald Tusk, Johnson again reiterated the desire for freedom to diverge from the EU’s regulatory standards in the long term, a prospect which the EU has always said will require border and customs checks to be introduced.

The pound was at 1.0927 against the euro, down 0.3% from late Monday and apparently resuming its slide, ending a short-covering rally that was triggered by hopes that lawmakers would strike a cross-party agreement to block a No-Deal Brexit.

The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies, was up less than 0.1% at 98.257.

Elsewhere, EUR/CHF remained well offered as the backdrop of the global slowdown forces the unwinding of carry trades and raises demand for haven currencies. Analysts note that sight deposits in the Swiss banking system have been rising at an accelerating pace over the last four weeks, something they say strongly suggests intervention by the Swiss National Bank to slow the franc’s rise. At 1.0854 to the euro, it has risen nearly 10% in the last 16 months, most of that appreciation coming in the last four months.

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Euro to Pound Sterling Exchange Rate Climbs as Sterling Support Wears Off

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Euro to Pound Exchange Rate Gains as Sterling Tumbles from Rebound

Speculation that Germany’s government and the European Central Bank (ECB) could take efforts to head off a potential German recession had a mixed impact on the Euro to Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP) exchange rate to climb today.

Following last week’s fall of almost two pence from 0.9313 to 0.9131, EUR/GBP has rebounded just slightly this week so far.

EUR/GBP trended closer to the level of 0.9164 at the time of writing today, resuming its attempts to advance after dipping overnight.

Investors have been buying the Euro to Pound exchange rate due to Pound (GBP) weakness, but there could be more notable movement on major data due later in the week.

Euro (EUR) Exchange Rates Mixed amid Stimulus Speculation

While the Euro (EUR) was supported slightly on Monday by speculation that Germany was preparing fresh fiscal stimulus to boost its economy, European Central Bank (ECB) speculation weighed on the Euro today.

ECB official Olli Rehn said that the bank was determined to act if Eurozone inflation continued to fall short of the 2.0% inflation target. He said:

‘Despite the stronger labour market and accelerating wages, inflationary pressures remain muted, and indicators of inflation expectations have declined with the weakening economic outlook,’

While the ECB’s actions could also help to avoid a damaging recession in Germany or other Eurozone nations, expectations for even looser Eurozone monetary policy left the Euro less appealing.

Pound (GBP) Exchange Rates Tumble Back ahead of Fresh Brexit Talks

The Pound (GBP) saw a surge in demand towards the end of last week, as UK economic and political fears that had worsened for weeks finally lightened slightly.

Hopes that Britain’s opposition parties could cooperate to oust the UK government and prevent a no-deal Brexit accounted for much of last week’s Pound recovery.

However, while those hopes persist, fears that a no-deal Brexit could become reality under the current government are keeping significant pressure on the Sterling and UK outlooks.

This week, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is set to hold fresh talks with EU officials, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron.

Hopes that Johnson would accept a renegotiation of the political declaration while leaving the agreement itself alone were doused by a letter Johnson sent to European Council President Donald Tusk yesterday.

This caused fresh no-deal Brexit concern and weighed on the Pound today.

Euro to Pound (EUR/GBP) Exchange Rate Awaits Further Political News and Data

Euro to Pound (EUR/GBP) exchange rate investors have had little major to react to this week so far. As the Euro is steadying stimulus speculation and the Pound is edging lower amid continued Brexit fears, the pair awaiting more influential news.

This week’s UK data will be fairly low influence, with public borrowing data due tomorrow and CBI’s distributive trades report on Thursday. Sterling investors are more likely to react to potential Brexit developments.

The Euro is also more likely to drive EUR/GBP, with multiple notable Eurozone ecostats due for publication on Thursday.The Eurozone’s August PMI projections from Markit will be published and are expected to weaken even further following months of slowdown. Eurozone consumer confidence stats from August will be published on Thursday as well.

Of course, any fresh comments from Eurozone or European Central Bank (ECB) officials on potential monetary or fiscal stimulus could also influence the Euro to Pound (EUR/GBP) exchange rate.

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