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Free trade agreements under review

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The news comes when India is in talks for a Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) which was proposed by the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) as the biggest trade proposal. It has 16 participating countries and was expected to conclude this year.

The review will decide the future of RCEP along with other FTAs. The report pointed out that the government is also targeting to increase the share of manufacturing in the economy to 25 from about 16 percent (at current prices) by 2022.

Another reason to assess the current trade arrangement was given by tax authorities who have seen imports being brought from FTA route-- to save on raised custom duties. It sometimes beat the idea of tariffs discouraging import of certain goods. Moreover, imports from non-FTA nations could claim treaty benefits if got from the FTA route.

Large companies could have been violating these rules which undermines the swadeshi movement under Make in India.

This week, the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India had also filed a petition on behalf of Indian palm oil producers against increased imports from Malaysia hurting the domestic market. They claim that lower custom duties under the Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA) have negatively impacted domestic production and sales. A probe has been initiated after the complaint.

The review will help the country implement better trade pacts if they hurt domestic manufactures.

Gold technical analysis: Drops to multi-day lows, back below $1500 handle

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  • Gold edged lower through the mid-European session on Monday and slipped below the key $1500 psychological mark to hit multi-day lows in the last hour.
  • Sustained weakness below 200-hour SMA - coinciding with 23.6% Fibo. level of the $1400-$1535 upsurge - was seen as a key trigger for intraday bearish traders.

Meanwhile, technical indicators have been gaining negative traction on hourly charts and support prospects for an extension of the corrective slide back towards testing last week's swing lows - around the $1483-81 region - nearing 38.2% Fibo. level.
 
However, oscillators on the daily chart maintained their bullish bias and might continue to attract some dip-buying interest, which might help limit further downside ahead of Wednesday's important release of the latest FOMC policy meeting minutes.Failure to defend the mentioned support might prompt some follow-through technical selling and accelerate the slide further towards $1475 intermediate support en-route 50$ Fibo. level - around the $1467-65 region amid fading safe-haven demand.

 
On the flip side, the $1500-10 region (23.6% Fibo. level and 100-hour SMA) now seems to act as an immediate resistance, which if cleared might accelerate the up-move towards $1522 intermediate resistance before the commodity aims back towards multi-year tops.


Gold 1-hourly chart

fxsoriginal

XAU/USD





OVERVIEW
Today last price1498.82
Today Daily Change-14.78
Today Daily Change %-0.98
Today daily open1513.6
 
TRENDS
Daily SMA201463.04
Daily SMA501420.56
Daily SMA1001355.11
Daily SMA2001317.2
LEVELS
Previous Daily High1527.65
Previous Daily Low1504.2
Previous Weekly High1534.4
Previous Weekly Low1481
Previous Monthly High1452.72
Previous Monthly Low1382.02
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%1513.16
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%1518.69
Daily Pivot Point S11502.65
Daily Pivot Point S21491.7
Daily Pivot Point S31479.2
Daily Pivot Point R11526.1
Daily Pivot Point R21538.6
Daily Pivot Point R31549.55

Forex - Dollar Hovering Near 3-Week Highs ahead of Fed Minutes

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The U.S. dollar was hovering just below three-week highs in subdued trade on Wednesday as investors looked ahead to the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting later in the day for fresh clues on the monetary policy outlook.

The Fed cut rates for the first time since 2008 last month in what Chairman Jerome Powell called a “mid-cycle adjustment.” Financial markets are still expecting further rate cuts before the end of the year against a background of heightened trade tensions and slowing growth.

The minutes come ahead of the central bank's annual Jackson Hole seminar later this week, where Powell is to give an eagerly awaited speech on Friday. His comments are of particular interest after last week's inversion of the U.S. yield curve - widely regarded as a recession signal - boosted expectations the Fed would cut rates again at its September meeting.

The U.S. dollar index against a basket of six major currencies edged up 0.12% to 98.17 by 03:05 AM ET (07:05 GMT) after shedding 0.2% overnight.

The index had climbed to 98.33 on Tuesday, its highest since Aug. 1, as U.S. yields bounced from multi-year lows at the week's start on signs global policymakers were ready to step up stimulus support to stave off a steep economic downturn.

U.S. yields, however, declined overnight on the prospect of more easing by the Fed.

Takuya Kanda, general manager at Gaitame.Com Research Institute, believes U.S. President Donald Trump's "strong desire for deep rate cuts" may raise hopes among some traders of strong easing signals at Jackson Hole. But he also warned that Powell may opt to give little away in his speech as the Fed prepares for next month's meeting.The dollar rose 0.34% to 106.58 yen reversing a part of the previous day's losses, while the euro was a touch lower at 1.1089 having put on 0.2% overnight.

The single currency dipped briefly after Italy's Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte announced his resignation on Tuesday.

"Conte's resignation won't have a strong impact on the euro in the longer run as it is only a chapter in the ever-shifting Italian politics," said Kanda at Gaitame.Com Research.

In addition to the Fed, the euro also has to contend with the possibility of the European Central Bank easing policy in September.

The Bundesbank said on Monday that the German economy may have continued to shrink over the summer as industrial production declined. That would mean the euro zone's biggest economy is now in recession following the second quarter's decline reported last week. Recession is commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth."Germany in recession would generate a strong buzz, and there is no doubt that economic conditions in the zone would force the ECB to take its next policy steps," said Daisuke Karakama, chief market economist at Mizuho Bank.

Sterling was down 0.24% to 1.2138, giving back some of the previous sessions gains.

The British pound rose after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the European Union would think about practical solutions regarding the post-Brexit Irish border.

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Forex - U.S. Dollar Flat; Euro Also Little Changed as Italy’s PM quits

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 The U.S. dollar was near flat on Wednesday in Asia, while the Euro was also largely unchanged as Italy’s Prime Minister quit.

The U.S. dollar index that tracks a basket of other currencies was little changed at 98.107. A gathering of central bankers at Jackson Hole, Wyoming and a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell are expected to be major directional drivers for the U.S. currency.

The Fed will release minutes of its July policy meeting minutes due later in the day. In July, the central slashed rate for the first time since the financial crisis.

The euro was also near flat after Italy’s Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said he is resigning ahead of no-confidence vote.

The latest reports suggested that it is unclear if snap elections would be called or if parliament would be asked to try and form a new government.

The safe-haven Japanese yen fell against the U.S. dollar even as stock markets traded lower amid concerns on a slowing global economy. Uncertainties surrounding the U.S.-China relations also affected market sentiment, as U.S. President Donald Trump said he had to “take China on” even if it would cause short-term impact on U.S. economy.

"Somebody had to take China on," Trump told reporters during a White House visit by Romanian President Klaus Iohannis. "This is something that had to be done. The only difference is I am doing it," he said.

"China has been ripping this country off for 25 years, for longer than that and it's about time whether it's good for our country or bad for our country short term. Long term it's imperative that somebody does this," he said.

The AUD/USD pair inched up 0.4% to 0.6778. The NZD/USD pair slipped 0.1% to 0.6407.

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